July Soft Red Winter Wheat Prices May Have Found a Bottom. Here Are the Levels to Watch Before You Buy.

Harvest machine approaching with foreground of wheat by Jodie777 via iStock

July SRW wheat futures (ZWN25) present a buying opportunity on more price strength. 

See on the daily bar chart for July soft red winter wheat futures that prices have rebounded from the March low to begin to suggest a market bottom is in place. See at the bottom of the chart that the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator is also now in a bullish mode, as the red MACD line has just crossed above the blue trigger line.

Recent rallies in corn (ZCK25) and soybean (ZSN25) futures markets to multi-week highs are also friendly for the winter wheat markets. Weather in U.S. winter wheat country has been significantly less than ideal over the past few months, with extreme temperature changes, high winds, and a lack of precipitation. This has likely reduced U.S. winter wheat production potential. The recent devaluation of the U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market is also making U.S. wheat more price-competitive on world trade markets.

A move in July SRW wheat futures above chart resistance at last week’s high of $5.71 would give the bulls fresh power and it would also become a buying opportunity. The upside price objective would be $6.25, or above. Technical support, for which to place a protective sell stop just below, is located at $5.50. 

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IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any trades and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 

Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you. 


On the date of publication, Jim Wyckoff did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.